Forecast for the Covestro Group

The analysis of the development of our key management indicators is based on the business performance described in this Quarterly Statement, the economic outlook outlined above, and consideration of our potential risks and opportunities.

Compared to the estimates given in the Annual Report 2023 and the Half-Year Financial Report 2024, we expect the challenging economic conditions to continue. For this reason, we have narrowed the guidance for EBITDA and ROCE above WACC for fiscal 2024. We now expect the key performance indicators to develop as follows:

¹ EBITDA: EBIT plus depreciation, amortization, and impairment losses; less impairment loss reversals on intangible assets and property, plant and equipment.

² Free operating cash flow (FOCF): cash flows from operating activities less cash outflows for additions to property, plant, equipment and intangible assets.

³ ROCE: ratio of EBIT after imputed income taxes to capital employed. Imputed income taxes are calculated by multiplying an imputed tax rate of 25% by EBIT.

⁴ WACC: weighted average cost of capital reflecting the expected return on the company’s equity and debt capital. A figure of 8.1% has been taken into account for the year 2024 (2023: 7.6%).

⁵ GHG emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2, GHG Protocol) at main production sites (responsible for more than 95% of our energy usage).

For the Covestro Group’s EBITDA, we now forecast a figure between €1,000 million and €1,250 million (previously: between €1,000 million and €1,400 million). The Performance Materials segment’s EBITDA is now projected to total between €400 million and €600 million (previously: between €400 million and €700 million). For the Solutions & Specialties segment, we now expect EBITDA to be slightly down on the 2023 figure (previously: on a level with the year 2023*).

The Covestro Group’s FOCF forecast is unchanged at between €–100 million and €100 million. In the Performance Materials segment, we still expect FOCF to be significantly down on the amount of the year 2023 (€162 million). In the Solutions & Specialties segment, we are also still forecasting FOCF to be significantly lower than in the year 2023 (€551 million).

We now anticipate ROCE above WACC to be between –⁠7% points and –5% points (previously: between –⁠7% points and –4% points).

The Covestro Group’s GHG emissions measured as CO₂ equivalents are still projected to be between 4.4 million metric tons and 5.0 million metric tons.