Forecast for the Covestro Group
The analysis of the development of our key management indicators is based on the business performance described in this Quarterly Statement, the economic outlook outlined above, and consideration of our potential risks and opportunities. For the rest of fiscal 2024, we confirm the key management indicators that we forecast in the Annual Report 2023.
| Forecast for key management indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Forecast 2024 | |
| EBITDA1 | €1,080 million | Between €1,000 million and €1,600 million |
| Free operating cash flow2 | €232 million | Between 0 million and €300 million |
| ROCE above WACC3, 4 | –6.1% points | Between –7% points and –2% points |
| Greenhouse gas emissions5 (CO2 equivalents) |
4.9 million metric tons | Between 4.4 million metric tons and 5.0 million metric tons |
1 EBITDA: EBIT plus depreciation, amortization, and impairment losses; less impairment loss reversals on intangible assets and property, plant and equipment.
2 Free operating cash flow (FOCF): cash flows from operating activities less cash outflows for additions to property, plant, equipment and intangible assets.
3 ROCE: ratio of EBIT after imputed income taxes to capital employed. Imputed income taxes are calculated by multiplying an imputed tax rate of 25% by EBIT.
4 WACC: weighted average cost of capital reflecting the expected return on the company’s equity and debt capital. A figure of 8.1% has been taken into account for the year 2024 (2023: 7.6%).
5 GHG emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2, GHG Protocol) at main production sites (responsible for more than 95% of our energy usage).
For the Covestro Group’s EBITDA, we project a figure between €1,000 million and €1,600 million. Covestro anticipates that the Performance Materials segment’s EBITDA will be €400 million to €800 million. In the Solutions & Specialties segment, we expect EBITDA to be significantly higher than the amount of the year 2023 (€817 million).
The Covestro Group’s FOCF is forecast between €0 million and €300 million. In the Performance Materials segment, we expect FOCF to be significantly down on the amount of the year 2023 (€162 million). In the Solutions & Specialties segment, we are also forecasting FOCF to be significantly lower than in the year 2023 (€551 million).
ROCE above WACC is anticipated in a range between –7% points and –2% points.
The Covestro Group’s GHG emissions, measured as CO2 equivalents, are projected to be between 4.4 million metric tons and 5.0 million metric tons.