The analysis of the development of our key management indicators is based on the business performance described in this Half-Year Financial Report, the economic outlook outlined above, and consideration of our potential risks and opportunities.
Compared with the estimates presented in the Annual Report 2024, we expect our financial situation to become significantly more challenging in fiscal 2025, especially because of the weak macroeconomic situation, which shows no signs of recovery in the short term. We have therefore adjusted the forecast for EBITDA, free operating cash flow, and ROCE above WACC. We now expect the key management indicators to develop as follows:
| Forecast key management indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Forecast 2025 (Annual Report 2024) |
Forecast 2025 (May 6, 2025) |
Forecast 2025 (July 31, 2025) |
|
| EBITDA1 | €1,071 million | Between €1,000 million and €1,600 million |
Between €1,000 million and €1,400 million |
Between €700 million and €1,100 million |
| Free operating cash flow2 | €89 million | Between 0 million and €300 million |
Between 0 million and €300 million |
Between €–400 million and €100 million |
| ROCE above WACC3, 4 | –7% points | Between –6% points and –2% points |
Between –6% points and –3% points |
Between –9% points and –5% points |
| Greenhouse gas emissions5 (CO2 equivalents) |
4.9 million metric tons | Between 4.2 million metric tons and 4.8 million metric tons |
Between 4.2 million metric tons and 4.8 million metric tons |
Between 4.2 million metric tons and 4.8 million metric tons |
1 EBITDA: EBIT plus depreciation, amortization, and impairment losses; less impairment loss reversals on intangible assets and property, plant and equipment.
2 Free operating cash flow (FOCF): cash flows from operating activities less cash outflows for additions to property, plant, equipment and intangible assets.
3 ROCE: ratio of EBIT after imputed income taxes to capital employed. Imputed income taxes are calculated by multiplying an imputed tax rate of 25% by EBIT.
4 WACC: weighted average cost of capital reflecting the expected return on the company’s equity and debt capital. A figure of 7.3% has been taken into account for the year 2025 (2024: 8.1%).
5 Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2, GHG Protocol) of all Covestro’s environmentally relevant sites.
For the Covestro Group’s EBITDA, we now forecast a figure between €700 million and €1,100 million (previously: between €1,000 million and €1,400 million). Covestro now anticipates that the Performance Materials segment’s EBITDA will be €200 million to €500 million (previously: between €400 million to €800 million). For the Solutions & Specialties segment, we now expect EBITDA of between €650 million and €850 million (previously: slightly higher than the amount of the year 2024*).
The Covestro Group’s FOCF is now forecast to total between €–400 million and €100 million (previously: between €0 million and €300 million).
We are now projecting ROCE above WACC in a range between –9% points and –5% points (previously: between –6% points and –3% points).
The projection for GHG emissions of all the Covestro Group’s environmentally relevant sites, measured as CO2 equivalents, is unchanged, at between 4.2 million metric tons and 4.8 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents.