For fiscal 2026, we expect positive global economic growth of 2.8%. We expect supportive fiscal policy in the United States and in China as well as the ongoing investment boom in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) to remain the main growth drivers. However, the effects of the new global trade order resulting from increased US trade tariffs as well as the risk of a correction for investments in new technologies continue to present significant uncertainty factors for global trade.
We believe that slight growth in the EMLA region will fall short of the global pace of 1.7%. Negative factors include weak global demand as well as high levels of uncertainty resulting from US trade tariffs, which have a dampening effect, particularly on investing activities. Rising competitive pressure resulting from China’s expanding manufacturing sector poses an additional challenge for the regional industry. For Germany’s export-oriented economy, we predict growth in economic output of 0.7% in the year 2026. For the Middle East, we believe that growth will likely outperform the global economic expansion. We anticipate that growth in Latin America will be below the global level. For Africa, we continue to forecast significant economic growth, outpacing the global growth rate.
For the NA region we expect to see growth slightly below the global level in the year 2026. In the United States, the continuation of expansionary fiscal policy under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to provide lasting economic stimulus. It is, moreover, forecast that the ongoing boom in AI-related investments as well as improved consumption will provide additional support for the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect the United States to generate economic growth of 2.8% in the year 2026.
Economic growth in the APAC region will likely outperform the global economy. We anticipate economic growth of 4.7% for China in fiscal 2026. We expect that the Chinese government will channel its fiscal support measures primarily into promoting the high-tech industry and expanding export-oriented manufacturing rather than pushing direct consumer support programs for private households.
| Economic growth1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Growth 2024 | Growth forecast 2025 | |
| % | % | |
| World | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Europe, Middle East, Latin America2, Africa (EMLA) | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| of which Europe | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| of which Germany | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| of which Middle East | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| of which Latin America2 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| of which Africa | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| North America3 (NA) | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| of which United States | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Asia-Pacific (APAC) | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| of which China | 5.0 | 4.7 |
1 Real growth of gross domestic product; source: Oxford Economics, as of January 2026.
2 Latin America (excluding Mexico).
3 North America (Canada, Mexico, United States).
In 2026, we forecast growth of 1.8% for the global automotive industry. Growth will primarily be driven by an improved export outlook in China as well as strong domestic demand in India. In contrast, we anticipate that supply chain disruptions will create headwinds in North America, which will slightly dampen the growth prospects. We expect new models with more affordable pricing scenarios to bring a moderate recovery to the EMLA region.
For the year 2026, we now anticipate growth of 2.5% for the global construction industry. The stabilization of financing terms and conditions and a beginning recovery of residential construction in Western Europe will likely support this trend. We anticipate positive growth for all regions, with the APAC region expected to record the most robust increases given its accelerated momentum.
For the year 2026, we anticipate growth of 6.2% for the electrical, electronics, and household appliances industry. The industry’s expansion in the year 2026 is expected to be driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence, advancing digitalization, as well as industrial automation and rising demand for chips in sectors such as electric vehicles. We therefore anticipate strong growth performance especially for the APAC and NA regions. Persistent economic weakness in the European core markets will continue to weigh on the sector regionally in the year 2026 since a major part of value creation is concentrated in these markets.
For the year 2026, we now anticipate growth of 1.0% for the global furniture industry. Despite the return to a moderate growth trajectory, persistent geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in international trade policy, and subdued demand in the established markets will likely continue to weigh on development. We anticipate positive growth momentum for the APAC and NA regions, while growth rates in the EMLA region are expected to stagnate.
| Growth in main customer industries1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Growth 2025 | Growth forecast 2026 | |
| % | % | |
| Automotive | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| Construction | 0.2 | 2.5 |
| Electrical, electronics and household appliances | 1.3 | 6.2 |
| Furniture | –0.8 | 1.0 |
1 Covestro’s estimate, based on the following sources: GlobalData Plc, B+L, CSIL (Centre for Industrial Studies), Oxford Economics. We limited the economic data of our “automotive and transportation” and “furniture and wood processing” main customer industries to the automotive and furniture segments (excluding the transportation or wood processing segments). As of: January 2026.