For fiscal 2025, we expect positive global economic growth of 2.8%. We anticipate solid consumer spending and rising corporate investments to be the most important growth drivers. However, potential trade restrictions are a risk factor for global trade.
We believe growth in the EMLA region will slightly underperform the global pace. Persistently weak consumption and low demand for exports as well as the possibility of U.S. tariffs are having a negative impact on the growth prospects for the region. For Germany’s export-oriented economy, we predict growth in economic output of 0.4% in the year 2025. For the Middle East, we believe that slight growth will likely outperform the global economic expansion. The oil industry will continue to be the driver of this development, since cuts in oil production in Saudi Arabia are expected to be gradually reversed. We anticipate that growth in Latin America will be below the global level. For Africa, we forecast slight economic growth, outpacing the global growth rate.
For the NA region we expect to see positive growth, slightly below the global level, in the year 2025. In the United States, the extension of expiring tax reductions and potential reforms expected to be implemented by the incoming administration are likely to provide fiscal stimulus. We anticipate that expansionary fiscal policy and lower immigration will cause further shortages in the labor market and drive down the unemployment rate. Against this backdrop, we expect the United States to generate economic growth of 2.6% in the year 2025.
Economic growth in the APAC region will likely outperform the global economy. We anticipate economic growth of 4.4% for China in fiscal 2025. Given its solid balance sheet and low debt, we expect the Chinese government to announce fiscal support measures in the first quarter of 2025, with the real estate sector and consumer support programs for private households the likely focus.
| Economic growth1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Growth 2024 | Growth forecast 2025 | |
| % | % | |
| World | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Europe, Middle East, Latin America2, Africa (EMLA) | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| of which Europe | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| of which Germany | –0.2 | 0.4 |
| of which Middle East | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| of which Latin America2 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| of which Africa | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| North America3 (NA) | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| of which United States | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Asia-Pacific (APAC) | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| of which China | 4.8 | 4.4 |
1 Real growth of gross domestic product; source: Oxford Economics, as of February 2025.
2 Latin America (excluding Mexico).
3 North America (Canada, Mexico, United States).
For the year 2025, we forecast positive growth of 2.7% for the global automotive industry. We anticipate a slight boost in demand for automobiles in China, driven by extensive support from the Chinese government, especially for electromobility. In contrast, we anticipate continuing weak demand in Europe and the United States. Although global growth is expected to be driven by the performance of the APAC and EMLA regions, we forecast slower but positive growth in the NA region.
For the year 2025, we anticipate positive growth of 0.2% for the global construction industry. The decline in residential construction, the lack of new plans for social housing, and persistent high inflation will probably continue to weigh on the performance of the construction industry in 2025. We anticipate slightly positive growth in the EMLA and NA regions, while growth in the APAC region is expected to be slightly negative.
For the year 2025, we anticipate growth of 5.2% for the electrical, electronics, and household appliances industry. Growth in the industry is expected to be fueled in 2025 by rising corporate expenditure on electronics in connection with increasing digitalization, industrial automation, and the growing use of artificial intelligence. We therefore forecast a positive growth trend for all regions.
For the year 2025, we anticipate positive growth of 1.5% for the global furniture industry. Despite the positive growth outlook for 2025, the industry and demand for furniture continue to be weighed down by the poor performance of residential construction and weak consumption, especially in China and Europe. We forecast a positive growth trend for all regions.
| Growth in main customer industries1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Growth 2024 | Growth forecast 2025 | |
| % | % | |
| Automotive | –0.7 | 2.7 |
| Construction | –2.5 | 0.2 |
| Electrical, electronics and household appliances | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Furniture | –0.5 | 1.5 |
1 Covestro’s estimate, based on the following sources: GlobalData Plc, B+L, CSIL (Centre for Industrial Studies), Oxford Economics. We limited the economic data of our “automotive and transportation” and “furniture and wood processing” main customer industries to the automotive and furniture segments (excluding the transportation or wood processing segments). As of: February 2025.